Observation

[ArtR 0]

Of the 7 guns which most recently sold on Gun Broker, the lowest price pad was $4924 with 8 bids, and the highest price paid was $11150 with 31 bids. The average sale price was $7912 for the 7 guns.  The number of bids for the sold rifles were between 8 and 36, with the average number of bids being 20. Five of these started as penny auctions, with two starting at 4000 and 6500 each.

There is one current penny auction running which is now at $10025 with 9 bids and a little less than 2 days to go.

During the same period,  there have been several guns out there languishing with no bids at all. Several have re-listings.  All have starting bids ranging from $12295 to $16999. Two new listings have starting bids of $9750 to $14500.

This high price expectation really started about 15-20 years ago when two exceptional, really very fine and pristine pieces  sold for between $6000 and $8000. From that time on, the flood gates opened, and everyone seems to think that what they have is a museum quality piece.

In short, an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay. If they are not bidding, they do not think it is worth it. And remember, just because someone paid a price for something, next week or next year, it may not even be worth that price. Markets go up, but they also go down.

 

Edit 10/23/2023: An 8th rifle sold over the weekend for $10025 with 9 bids. That changes the 8 sale average to $8176 avg per sale and each had an average of 19 bids.

[WHIG 0]

Very nice summary. You have been keeping track for quite a while. I agree that many refurbs, faked pieces or damaged rifles sometimes sell high. Too many buyers don't often know what they are bidding on and buying. I am thankful this forum had such kind and helpful members to educate me more before I bought my JSAR. Research is only as good as it's source(s). Buyers should visit here first and sometimes save a bunch of money and potential misery!

[tinsoldier 0]

7 hours ago, WHIG said:

Very nice summary. You have been keeping track for quite a while. I agree that many refurbs, faked pieces or damaged rifles sometimes sell high. Too many buyers don't often know what they are bidding on and buying. I am thankful this forum had such kind and helpful members to educate me more before I bought my JSAR. Research is only as good as it's source(s). Buyers should visit here first and sometimes save a bunch of money and potential misery!

Amen! Thanks ArtR!  I agree with WHIG, too many people are ignorant of what they're buying.  What's sad in my mind, is that I've read posts on a few other well respected military collector forums, where people have made totally erroneous statements concerning JSARs.   Some of the uninitiated no doubt read these, and hold them as gospel because of the reputation of the forum and the stature of the poster, and then go spend their money on a less than satisfactory example.  A lack of knowledge can be a dangerous thing, but false knowledge is worse.  I spent a year on here for a year before I bought my first Johnson rifle - just as a guest reading everything I could find.  Thank God for this website! 

[tinsoldier 0]

Oops, one too many 'years'*.

[ArtR 0]

That is what happens when you spend a year too many years in research years.

[tinsoldier 0]

LOL!!

[BBBQ 0]

Thanks for this analysis it is interesting, wow average price is so high. I'm also curious how much supply is really out there..  how many serial numbers are known to exist today? Not number produced but actually observed from watching listing and postings, thanks

[ArtR 0]

4 hours ago, BBBQ said:

Thanks for this analysis it is interesting, wow average price is so high. I'm also curious how much supply is really out there..  how many serial numbers are known to exist today? Not number produced but actually observed from watching listing and postings, thanks

Hi BBBQ

While it is fairly well known that about 22800 rifles were  actually produced, the exact or approximate number of surviving rifles is unknown. Probably several hundred have been observed on this forum alone over just the past 15-20 years. There are probably some many more that are or have been seen on other forums or listings or that are property of museums or other private collections. Every so often another rifle will appear either as a new acquisition on this forum or as an item being offered for sale on one of the many auction houses.  We can only hope that there are way more than what has been observed.

ArtR

[tinsoldier 0]

If I remember right, ArtR's last tally of rifles he had hard data on, or were known to exist, was 866?